What are the Odds?
Paolo S. Mariano, Thursday, September 29, 2011.
Top seed Ateneo de Manila University already has one foot inside the championship door after winning Game 1 of the 73rd UAAP men’s senior basketball tournament. With the Blue Eagles clicking on all cylinders, they are the clear favorites to win the gleaming hardware.
All hope, however, is not lost for third seed Far Eastern University (FEU). In fact, as history dictates, the odds of the Tamaraws winning the title are pretty even with Ateneo’s.
Excluding this season, the first seed and the third seed have met in the Finals six times since the Final Four format was installed in 1994. The results are split 50-50. The number one seed has defeated the number three seed thrice, and vice versa.
Obviously, that bodes well for the Tamaraws, who are already down by one game in this year’s best-of-three championship. This Saturday’s Game 2 is a must-win for them and the 50-50 percentage could be a psychological help.
The last third seed that nipped the top seed is University of Santo Tomas (UST), which upset, incidentally, Ateneo in three games in 2006. It is one of the most competitive Finals match-up in recent memory with the two teams being separated by an average of only 6.3 points.
The other instances where the lower ranked squad ousted the league’s top team were in 1994 and 2002.
In 1994, UST trampled De La Salle University in three games to win its second straight title. The Growling Tigers were led by season MVP Dennis Espino, shifty guard Bal David, and volatile coach Aric del Rosario. Meanwhile, the Green Archers, who were mentored by Virgil Villavicencio, leaned on the one-two punch of Mark Telan and Jason Webb.
La Salle suffered the same heartache in 2002, after it was upset by archrival Ateneo. The Blue Eagles turned back the Green Archers in three games, denying them a record fifth straight diadem. Larry Fonacier and Wesley Gonzales were named co-Finals MVPs. The series is also remembered for the infamous Mike Cortez meltdown in the deciding Game 3.
In the Finals, both teams need to win the same number of games. As a result, the odds of the higher seed bagging the title aren’t that pronounced. The number one seed has won nine out of 17 times or 53%. Not that striking, isn’t it? That’s why upsets aren’t uncommon, which is exactly what the Tams are gunning for in this year’s Last Dance.
Shocking a well-oiled Ateneo squad, however, is nothing short of difficult. The Blue Eagles have dominated the UAAP in the last three years, winning title after title after title. They have only lost once this season and they surely won’t allow two straight defeats in the Finals. They’ve learned from their 2006 debacle and they know they can’t take any team lightly, even if they are the higher seed. The last time Ateneo lost consecutive games was in 2007.
But if there’s one statistic that FEU should be really afraid of, it’s this: Since 1994, the winner of Game 1 has won the title 13 out of 17 times.
The 50-50 percentage will be busted at the end of this season’s Finals. Will the numbers lean towards the top seed? Or will it be on the underdog? The answer awaits.
All hope, however, is not lost for third seed Far Eastern University (FEU). In fact, as history dictates, the odds of the Tamaraws winning the title are pretty even with Ateneo’s.
Excluding this season, the first seed and the third seed have met in the Finals six times since the Final Four format was installed in 1994. The results are split 50-50. The number one seed has defeated the number three seed thrice, and vice versa.
Obviously, that bodes well for the Tamaraws, who are already down by one game in this year’s best-of-three championship. This Saturday’s Game 2 is a must-win for them and the 50-50 percentage could be a psychological help.
The last third seed that nipped the top seed is University of Santo Tomas (UST), which upset, incidentally, Ateneo in three games in 2006. It is one of the most competitive Finals match-up in recent memory with the two teams being separated by an average of only 6.3 points.
The other instances where the lower ranked squad ousted the league’s top team were in 1994 and 2002.
In 1994, UST trampled De La Salle University in three games to win its second straight title. The Growling Tigers were led by season MVP Dennis Espino, shifty guard Bal David, and volatile coach Aric del Rosario. Meanwhile, the Green Archers, who were mentored by Virgil Villavicencio, leaned on the one-two punch of Mark Telan and Jason Webb.
La Salle suffered the same heartache in 2002, after it was upset by archrival Ateneo. The Blue Eagles turned back the Green Archers in three games, denying them a record fifth straight diadem. Larry Fonacier and Wesley Gonzales were named co-Finals MVPs. The series is also remembered for the infamous Mike Cortez meltdown in the deciding Game 3.
In the Finals, both teams need to win the same number of games. As a result, the odds of the higher seed bagging the title aren’t that pronounced. The number one seed has won nine out of 17 times or 53%. Not that striking, isn’t it? That’s why upsets aren’t uncommon, which is exactly what the Tams are gunning for in this year’s Last Dance.
Shocking a well-oiled Ateneo squad, however, is nothing short of difficult. The Blue Eagles have dominated the UAAP in the last three years, winning title after title after title. They have only lost once this season and they surely won’t allow two straight defeats in the Finals. They’ve learned from their 2006 debacle and they know they can’t take any team lightly, even if they are the higher seed. The last time Ateneo lost consecutive games was in 2007.
But if there’s one statistic that FEU should be really afraid of, it’s this: Since 1994, the winner of Game 1 has won the title 13 out of 17 times.
The 50-50 percentage will be busted at the end of this season’s Finals. Will the numbers lean towards the top seed? Or will it be on the underdog? The answer awaits.
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